State	EV	2024 Result	Senate Race	2026 Margin	Updated
AL Alabama	9	Safe R	OPEN (Tommy Tuberville) Safe R	--	--
AK Alaska	3	Likely R	Dan Sullivan Toss-up	D+2.3 3	Jun 29
AZ Arizona	11	Lean R	--	--	--
AR Arkansas	6	Safe R	Tom Cotton Safe R	--	--
CA California	54	Safe D	--	--	--
CO Colorado	10	Likely D	John Hickenlooper Safe D	--	--
CT Connecticut	7	Likely D	--	--	--
DE Delaware	3	Likely D	Chris Coons Safe D	--	--
DC District of Columbia	3	Safe D	--	--	--
FL Florida	30	Likely R	Ashley Moody Lean R	R+4.0 4	Jun 7
GA Georgia	16	Tilt R	Jon Ossoff Likely D	D+8.4 2	Jun 30
HI Hawaii	4	Safe D	--	--	--
ID Idaho	4	Safe R	Jim Risch Safe R	R+33.0 2	Jun 7
IL Illinois	19	Likely D	OPEN (Dick Durbin) Safe D	--	--
IN Indiana	11	Safe R	--	--	--
IA Iowa	6	Likely R	OPEN (Joni Ernst) Toss-up	D+0.4 5	Jun 27
KS Kansas	6	Safe R	Roger Marshall Lean R	R+4.0 2	Apr 27
KY Kentucky	8	Safe R	OPEN (Mitch McConnell) Safe R	--	--
LA Louisiana	8	Safe R	Bill Cassidy Safe R	--	--
ME Maine	4	Lean D	Susan Collins Toss-up	D+1.9 19	Jul 8
MD Maryland	10	Safe D	--	--	--
MA Massachusetts	11	Safe D	Ed Markey Safe D	D+24.0 7	Jun 23
MI Michigan	15	Tilt R	OPEN (Gary Peters) Toss-up	D+0.9 11	Jun 30
MN Minnesota	10	Tilt D	OPEN (Tina Smith) Likely D	D+7.0 1	May 28
MS Mississippi	6	Safe R	Cindy Hyde-Smith Safe R	--	--
MO Missouri	10	Safe R	--	--	--
MT Montana	4	Safe R	OPEN (Steve Daines) Safe R	R+18.2 4	Jun 24
NE Nebraska	5	Safe R	Pete Ricketts Lean D	D+5.0 1	May 11
NV Nevada	6	Tilt R	--	--	--
NH New Hampshire	4	Tilt D	OPEN (Jeanne Shaheen) Safe D	D+10.3 4	Jun 27
NJ New Jersey	14	Lean D	Cory Booker Safe D	--	--
NM New Mexico	5	Lean D	Ben Ray Lujan Safe D	--	--
NY New York	28	Likely D	--	--	--
NC North Carolina	16	Tilt R	OPEN (Thom Tillis) Likely D	D+8.7 6	Jul 11
ND North Dakota	3	Safe R	--	--	--
OH Ohio	17	Likely R	Jon Husted Lean D	D+3.0 4	Jun 28
OK Oklahoma	7	Safe R	Markwayne Mullin Safe R	--	--
OR Oregon	8	Likely D	Jeff Merkley Safe D	--	--
PA Pennsylvania	19	Tilt R	--	--	--
RI Rhode Island	4	Likely D	Jack Reed Safe D	D+17.5 2	Jun 23
SC South Carolina	9	Safe R	Lindsey Graham Lean R	R+3.0 1	Jun 22
SD South Dakota	3	Safe R	Mike Rounds Safe R	R+25.0 1	May 30
TN Tennessee	11	Safe R	Bill Hagerty Safe R	--	--
TX Texas	40	Likely R	OPEN (John Cornyn) Toss-up	D+1.4 11	Jun 28
UT Utah	6	Safe R	--	--	--
VT Vermont	3	Safe D	--	--	--
VA Virginia	13	Lean D	Mark Warner Safe D	D+21.5 2	Jun 16
WA Washington	12	Safe D	--	--	--
WV West Virginia	4	Safe R	Shelley Moore Capito Safe R	--	--
WI Wisconsin	10	Tilt R	--	--	--
WY Wyoming	3	Safe R	OPEN (Cynthia Lummis) Safe R	--	--

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RMG Research

D+2
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Morning Consult

D+3
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D+4
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D+6
PA

Quinnipiac

D+13

Methodology

Race ratings are based on polling data, historical voting patterns, candidate quality, and expert analysis from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections.

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