Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Alaska primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena University ±3.1 | 2026-06-29 | 593 LV | ±4.90 | Mary Peltola 45.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 47.00% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 2026-06-07 | 1393 LV | ±3.00 | Mary Peltola 49.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 44.00% |
| Alaska Survey Research partisan·D | 2026-05-17 | 1401 LV | ±3.00 | Mary Peltola 48.00% | Dan S. Sullivan 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Alaska Senate race?
Mary Peltola leads Dan S. Sullivan 47.3% to 45% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+2.3 margin based on 3 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 Alaska Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Alaska Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from New York Times/Siena University (completed June 29, 2026), found Mary Peltola (D) at 45% and Dan S. Sullivan (R) at 47%.
When is the 2026 Alaska Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Two-term incumbent
Independent Expenditures Updated 4 hours ago
Top Spenders
- LAST FRONTIER PAC $2,167,832
- AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY ACTION, INC. (AFP ACTION) DBA CVA ACTION AND DBA LIBRE ACTION $439,601
- SLF PAC $187,926
- INDIVISIBLE ACTION $15,476
- UBCS PAC $9,695
- BLUE BATTLEGROUND PROJECT $5,000
- FORWARD BLUE $1,000
- GIVEGREEN UNITED ACTION $259
- MAJORITY BLUE PAC $83
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →