Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 4, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Michigan primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quantus Insights partisan·R | 2026-06-30 | 947 LV | ±3.30 | El-Sayed 45.00% | Rogers 44.00% |
| Data for Progress (D) partisan·D ±4.1 | 2026-06-22 | 709 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 47.00% | Mike Rogers 46.00% |
| Zenith Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-06-14 | 602 LV | ±4.00 | Abdul El-Sayed 45.00% | Mike Rogers 42.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 43.7% to 42.8% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+0.9 margin based on 11 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 Michigan Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Michigan Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Quantus Insights (completed June 30, 2026), found El-Sayed (D) at 45% and Rogers (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 Michigan Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Peters retiring, open seat in swing state
Independent Expenditures Updated 4 hours ago
Top Spenders
- UNITED DEMOCRACY PROJECT ('UDP') $9,760,810
- NATIONAL NURSES UNITED FOR PATIENT PROTECTION $489,665
- COMMON DEFENSE ACTION FUND $289,665
- FIGHTING FOR MICHIGAN PAC $194,051
- AMERICAN PRIORITIES (AP) $154,028
- A STRONGER MICHIGAN $150,000
- J STREET ACTION FUND $50,000
- MOVEON.ORG POLITICAL ACTION $40,899
- PAF $40,000
- EMGAGE FEDERAL POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEE $11,000
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →