Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-07-11 | 1348 RV | ±2.80 | Alexander Vindman 37.00% | Ashley Moody 45.00% |
| University of North Florida | 2026-06-07 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Angie Nixon 40.00% | Ashley Moody 47.00% |
| McLaughlin & Associates (R) | 2026-06-07 | 800 LV | ±3.50 | Alexander Vindman 40.00% | Ashley Moody 47.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody leads Alexander Vindman 46.5% to 42.5% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+4.0 margin based on 4 polls from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 Florida Senate race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Change Research (D) (completed July 11, 2026), found Alexander Vindman (D) at 37% and Ashley Moody (R) at 45%.
When is the 2026 Florida Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. This is a special election.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Rubio resigned for cabinet position