Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Full calendar and every race: Minnesota primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
Kurt M. Anderson
DemocratPeter J. Murgic
DemocratAhmad R. Hassan
RepublicanMohamad Muse
Republican
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-28 | 808 LV | ±3.50 | Angie Craig 51.00% | Michele Tafoya 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 Minnesota Senate race?
Angie Craig leads Michele Tafoya 51% to 44% in the PollingSource polling average — a D+7.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race competitive?
It is not considered a top-tier battleground: the PollingSource polling average rates it Likely D, meaning Democrats are clearly favored but an upset is not impossible.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 Minnesota Senate race say?
The most recent public poll, from Impact Research (D) (completed May 28, 2026), found Angie Craig (D) at 51% and Michele Tafoya (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 Minnesota Senate race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race Notes
Smith retiring
Independent Expenditures Updated 4 hours ago
Top Spenders
- NORTH STAR DAWN PAC $9,840,490
- DLGA $1,612,354
- CENTER FORWARD COMMITTEE $1,229,750
- UNITE TO WIN $1,000,000
- MINNESOTANS FOR PROGRESS PAC $367,686
- CLEAR VOICE MINNESOTA $175,000
- BLUE MAJORITY PROJECT $25,427
- BLUE MAJORITY MAKERS PAC $3,256
- BLUE DEMOCRACY NETWORK $2,956
- DMFI PAC $2,399
Full outside-spending research — every committee, every race →