Primary
Primary election: Tuesday, August 4, 2026 in 14 days
Full calendar and every race: Missouri primary guide
Race Overview
General Election Polling Trend
PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.
Candidates
General Election Polling Average
Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →
| Pollster | Date | Sample | MoE | Dem | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FM3 Research (D) partisan·D | 2026-05-31 | 600 LV | ±4.00 | Fred Wellman 41.00% | Ann Wagner 44.00% |
Questions About This Race
Who is winning the 2026 MO-02 House race?
Ann Wagner leads Fred Wellman 44% to 41% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+3.0 margin based on 1 poll from the last 90 days.
Is the 2026 MO-02 House race competitive?
Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates it Lean R: Republicans are favored, but the race is competitive.
What does the latest poll of the 2026 MO-02 House race say?
The most recent public poll, from FM3 Research (D) (completed May 31, 2026), found Fred Wellman (D) at 41% and Ann Wagner (R) at 44%.
When is the 2026 MO-02 House race decided?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
How is the PollingSource average calculated?
The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.
Race News
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