FM3 Research partisan·D
7 scored general-election polls (2014–2022) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1 | 1.4 pts | R+1.4 | 100% |
| 2020 | 3 | 10.8 pts | D+10.8 | 33% |
| 2018 | 1 | 6.5 pts | D+6.5 | 100% |
| 2016 | 1 | 16.0 pts | — | 100% |
| 2014 | 1 | 2.1 pts | D+2.1 | 100% |
Recent 2026 polls
The firm's polls from the last 30 days (results aren't in yet, so these aren't scored — see the 2026 vs.-consensus column on the summary).
| Date | Race | Sample | Matchup | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | NY-17 House | 509 LV | Cait Conley 51.00% – Mike Lawler 45.00% | D+6.0 |
| 2026-06-25 | WI-3 House | 535 LV | Rebecca Cooke 50.00% – Derrick Van Orden 46.00% | D+4.0 |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-25 | OR Governor | D+2.0 | D+3.4 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-13 | AL Senate | D+1.0 | R+20.4 | 21.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-03 | N2 President | D+11.0 | D+6.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-03 | NE-2 House | D+2.0 | R+4.6 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 2018-09-18 | WA-5 House | R+3.0 | R+9.5 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 2016-09-22 | CA-46 House | D+24.0 | D+40.0 | 16.0 | ✓ |
| 2014-10-06 | UT-4 House | R+3.0 | R+5.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.