South Carolina's Senate succession fight took a concrete step today as Mark Lynch, who lost to Lindsey Graham in the state's June Republican primary, announced he will run in the special primary to fill Graham's seat following his death Saturday. Meanwhile, a new PPP poll shows North Carolina's Senate race tightening only modestly, with Democrat Roy Cooper leading Republican Michael Whatley by four points among registered voters — a margin consistent with the PollingSource average's Likely D rating.
South Carolina Senate: A Second Candidate Emerges for the Special Primary
The field for South Carolina's Senate special primary is taking shape. Mark Lynch, who challenged Graham in the June primary and lost, confirmed Monday he will run again now that the seat is vacant, ending months of speculation about a repeat bid. His entry comes as national attention has focused on Graham's relationship with President Trump in the days following his death, with retrospectives noting how thoroughly the late senator had aligned himself with the president in his final years. The shape of the broader Republican field, and any Trump endorsement in the race, remains unresolved.
North Carolina Senate: Cooper Holds a Steady Edge
A PPP survey conducted July 8-11 shows Cooper leading Whatley 48 to 44 percent among 759 registered voters in the North Carolina Senate race, a margin roughly in line with the PollingSource average's Likely D rating. The four-point spread leaves Whatley within single digits, but Cooper has yet to show signs of slipping below the mid-to-high 40s in recent surveys of the race.
Florida Senate: Democratic Endorsements Build for Vindman
In Florida, state Senator Dan Daley became the latest Democratic lawmaker to endorse Alex Vindman's campaign for the Florida Senate race, adding to a growing list of party officials lining up behind the former national security official. The endorsement reflects consolidating intra-party support for Vindman rather than any new data on his standing against the Republican field.
Ohio Governor: Acton Navigates a Divided Democratic Base
In the Ohio governor's race, rated a toss-up by the PollingSource average, Democratic nominee Amy Acton has drawn criticism from progressives after describing protections for women's sports as "settled law" in Ohio, a position that breaks from more combative stances taken elsewhere in the party. The disagreement illustrates a broader rift among Democrats over how aggressively to contest the issue following recent Supreme Court rulings giving states latitude to set their own policies.
Watch for movement in the South Carolina special election timeline and any Trump endorsement in that Senate primary, along with additional filing news as candidates position themselves ahead of the fall primary calendar.
Polls
| NC Senate PPP (n=759 RV) | Cooper 48.00% · Whatley 44.00% |
Follow the Money
The first wave of quarterly FEC filings is landing, and the numbers offer an early read on which campaigns are stockpiling resources versus burning through them. Several Senate contests show contrasting cash postures among candidates who have already reported.
Ohio Senate: Brown Reports Largest Haul
Sherrod Brown, the Democrat running in the Ohio Senate race, leads all filers so far with $25.98 million in total receipts. Brown's filing shows $17 million in cash on hand against $8.95 million in disbursements, giving him one of the strongest cash positions reported to date.
Michigan Senate: Crowded Field of Filers
The Michigan Senate race produced multiple filings in short order. Democrat Haley Stevens reported $8.87 million in receipts and $3.39 million cash on hand, while fellow Democrat Mallory McMorrow filed $8.62 million in receipts against $3.69 million on hand. Republican Michael Rogers reported $7.68 million in receipts with $4.25 million remaining, and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed posted $7.65 million in receipts but just $2.53 million cash on hand after $5.12 million in spending. The proximity of these totals suggests a competitive fundraising environment among the filers reported so far.
Texas Senate: Divergent Cash Positions
In the Texas Senate race, Republican John Cornyn filed $7.92 million in receipts but reported disbursements of $7.96 million, leaving $4.08 million on hand. Democrat Colin Allred reported $7.63 million in receipts against $7.76 million in disbursements, leaving just $11,951 in cash on hand — the thinnest reported reserve among filers so far. In the Texas House delegation, Democrat Jasmine Crockett filed $7.91 million in receipts and $9.44 million in disbursements, closing the period with zero cash on hand.
Kentucky Senate: Barr Outspends Receipts
In the Kentucky Senate race, Republican Andy Barr reported $8.4 million in receipts but $9.65 million in disbursements — spending more than he raised this period — leaving $2.45 million on hand. Fellow Republican Nate Morris filed $8.59 million in receipts against $7.88 million in disbursements, ending with $708,324 in cash, one of the lower reserves among Senate filers so far.
Headlines
- Dan Daley becomes latest Democratic lawmaker to back Alex Vindman’s Senate run (Florida Politics)
State Sen. Dan Daley has endorsed Alex Vindman's 2024 Senate campaign in Florida, making him the latest Democratic la... - Florida keeps explaining away eight road deaths a day (Florida Politics)
Florida faces a persistent traffic safety crisis with approximately eight road deaths occurring daily, yet state offi... - Trump endorses multiple House GOP candidates (The Hill)
President Trump endorsed seven Republican House candidates on Monday through Truth Social posts, including John Cowan...
What to Watch
Arizona Sets Primary Date
Arizona has scheduled its primary for July 21, 2026, covering House and gubernatorial contests. The Arizona governor's race currently carries a Likely D rating, giving the primary added weight in shaping the fall matchup.
Governor's Races to Watch
No other primary or general election dates fall in the next week, but several gubernatorial contests remain worth tracking as ratings develop. The Florida governor's race and the Nebraska governor's race are both rated Toss-up, the most competitive tier on the board. Kansas is rated Lean R, while Iowa and North Carolina sit at Lean D — all four are closer than the Likely or Solid categories and merit close attention for any rating shifts.
Elsewhere on the Map
Michigan, Minnesota, and Georgia governor's races are rated Likely D, and New Hampshire is Likely R — not competitive at present, but worth monitoring for movement as filing deadlines and primary calendars advance in the coming weeks.
New Polls (1)
Rating Changes
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio Governor N/A → Toss-up
PollingSource Poll Average: Ohio Senate N/A → Lean D
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