Atlas Intel
82 scored general-election polls (2020–2024) , each measured against the certified result. How to read these numbers: methodology.
Record by cycle
| Cycle | Polls | Avg. Error | Lean | Winner Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 66 | 1.4 pts | D+0.5 | 92% |
| 2022 | 2 | 2.3 pts | R+2.3 | 50% |
| 2020 | 14 | 2.2 pts | D+1.0 | 71% |
Every scored poll
| Date | Race | Poll Margin | Actual | Error | Called It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | MT President | R+20.0 | R+19.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | MT President | R+20.0 | R+19.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | VA President | D+5.0 | D+5.8 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | MN President | D+2.0 | D+4.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | MN President | D+2.0 | D+4.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | TX President | R+11.0 | R+13.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | TX President | R+11.0 | R+13.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | OH President | R+9.0 | R+11.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | OH President | R+9.0 | R+11.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+3.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | NV President | R+3.0 | R+3.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | NV President | R+3.0 | R+3.1 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | AZ President | R+5.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | National President | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-04 | PA President | R+1.0 | R+1.7 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | NC President | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | NV President | R+6.0 | R+3.1 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | AZ President | R+6.0 | R+5.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | WI President | R+1.0 | R+0.9 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | MI President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | National President | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-11-02 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-31 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-31 | National President | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | NC President | R+4.0 | R+3.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | NV President | R+4.0 | R+3.1 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-30 | MI President | Even | R+1.4 | 1.4 | — |
| 2024-10-30 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | NC President | D+1.0 | R+3.2 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-29 | NV President | R+1.0 | R+3.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | GA President | R+3.0 | R+2.2 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | AZ President | R+4.0 | R+5.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | WI President | Even | R+0.9 | 0.9 | — |
| 2024-10-29 | MI President | R+1.0 | R+1.4 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | PA President | R+2.0 | R+1.7 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-29 | National President | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-17 | NC President | D+2.0 | R+3.2 | 5.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-17 | NV President | Even | R+3.1 | 3.1 | — |
| 2024-10-17 | GA President | R+2.0 | R+2.2 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-17 | AZ President | Even | R+5.5 | 5.5 | — |
| 2024-10-17 | WI President | D+1.0 | R+0.9 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 2024-10-17 | MI President | R+3.0 | R+1.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-17 | PA President | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-10-17 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-25 | NC President | D+3.0 | R+3.2 | 6.2 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-25 | NV President | D+3.0 | R+3.1 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 2024-09-25 | GA President | R+1.0 | R+2.2 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-25 | AZ President | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-25 | WI President | R+2.0 | R+0.9 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-25 | MI President | R+4.0 | R+1.4 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-25 | PA President | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2024-09-12 | National President | R+3.0 | R+1.5 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | National Generic Ballot | R+3.1 | R+2.6 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2022-11-06 | GA Senate | R+3.2 | D+1.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | D+4.5 | D+1.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2021-01-03 | GA Senate | D+3.9 | D+2.1 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-29 | GA Senate | D+4.3 | D+1.2 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-12-29 | GA Senate | D+4.2 | D+2.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | WI President | D+1.9 | D+0.6 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | TX President | R+2.7 | R+5.6 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | NC President | R+2.0 | R+1.4 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | MI President | D+2.4 | D+2.8 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-30 | GA President | R+2.2 | D+0.2 | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-30 | AZ President | R+2.3 | D+0.3 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | PA President | R+1.1 | D+1.2 | 2.3 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-29 | OH President | R+3.9 | R+8.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2020-10-28 | FL President | D+0.1 | R+3.4 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 2020-10-27 | National President | D+4.7 | D+4.4 | 0.3 | ✓ |
Margins shown as party lead (D+/R+); for non-D-vs-R matchups the margin is first-listed candidate minus second. Historical scored-poll data for cycles through 2023 from FiveThirtyEight's pollster-ratings dataset (CC-BY-4.0); 2024 scored by PollingSource. This record never changes what enters the PollingSource average.