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Florida Governor Race

2026 Election • Open Seat (Term Limited)
Back to Governor Races

Primary

Primary election: Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Full calendar and every race: Florida primary guide

Race Overview

Incumbent
OPEN (Ron DeSantis)
Party
Republican
Open Seat
Yes
Current Rating
Toss-up our polls experts: Lean R
Term Limited
Yes
Polls
6 polls

PollingSource Rating

Toss-up
Our polling average R+0.1 · 6 polls

General Election Polling Trend

PollingSource average — trailing average of all polls from the last 90 days.

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Expert Ratings

Consensus Rating

Lean R

Individual forecaster ratings will be updated as they become available.

Candidates

General Election Polling Average

Democrat
42.7%
Republican
42.8%
Margin
R+0.1
Last Poll
Jul 11, 2026

Average reflects all polls from the last 90 days; table shows the most recent 30 days or the newest 3 polls, whichever is more — subscribe for the full history. How accurate is each pollster? →

PollsterDateSampleMoEDemRep
Change Research partisan·D 2026-07-11 1004 LV David Jolly 46.00% Bryon Donalds 40.00%
Change Research (D) partisan·D 2026-07-11 1348 RV ±2.80 David Jolly 37.00% Byron Donalds 37.00%
Change Research partisan·D 2026-06-14 1015 LV David Jolly 49.00% Byron Donalds 43.00%

Questions About This Race

Who is winning the 2026 Florida governor's race?

Bryon Donalds leads David Jolly 42.8% to 42.7% in the PollingSource polling average — a R+0.1 margin based on 6 polls from the last 90 days.

Is the 2026 Florida governor's race competitive?

Yes — the PollingSource polling average rates this race a Toss-up, the most competitive category.

What does the latest poll of the 2026 Florida governor's race say?

The most recent public poll, from Change Research (completed July 11, 2026), found David Jolly (D) at 46% and Bryon Donalds (R) at 40%.

When is the 2026 Florida governor's race decided?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

How is the PollingSource average calculated?

The PollingSource average is the unweighted mean of every scientific public poll of the race from the last 90 days — we do not exclude pollsters. Each race page lists the individual polls behind the average with pollster, field dates, sample size, and margin of error. Full details: pollingsource.com/methodology.

Race Notes

Term-limited, open seat

Race News